12/05/2025

Solar activity was at low levels this past week with only C class
flares. Region 4294 remains the largest region on the disk but is
appearing to be simplifying magnetically. Region 4296, on the other
hand, gained a delta region in its intermediary region, though with
no corresponding increase in flare activity as of yet. New flux
emerged along the eastern side of Region 4298, resulting in several
C flares throughout the reporting period. Region 4299 also developed
a delta region in its primary spot but no appreciable shear was
observed. Region 4301 developed, was numbered, but was otherwise
unremarkable. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
ÿ
Isolated to occasional M class flares are expected through December
6, with a chance for X class flares, given past flare history, and
the potential of current active regions on the disk.
ÿ
The environment will likely remain enhanced due to fast solar wind
conditions through December 6.

M class flares (R1 to R2/Minor to Moderate) are likely, with slight
chance for X flares (R3 Strong or greater), through 12 Dec due
primarily to the flare potential of Region 4294.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to reach active levels on December 3
and 6, and G1 (Minor) storm levels on December 4 and 5, driven by
influences from a negative polarity CH HSS.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, December 4, 2025, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

The significant increase in solar activity since the beginning of
December has finally confirmed the original assumption that the
current 25th eleven year solar cycle will have two peaks. The first
occurred last October, while we have been eagerly awaiting the
second this year (especially in the fall). The increase in activity
at the end of this summer started promisingly, but it was only the
first of several. It was only after the large solar flare on
November 11, 2025, which was the largest since October 3, 2024, that
it was possible to estimate that the second maximum was approaching.

High solar activity period can be expected during the first half of
December, while it is a bit of a shame that it did not occur a week
or two earlier. This would have been particularly appreciated by
shortwave radio amateurs, as the telegraph part of the largest
competition, the CW WW DX Contest,ÿ traditionally takes place
during the last weekend of November.

Although the current parameters of high speed solar wind do not
create exactly the structure of the Earth's ionosphere that we would
like, at least the highest usable frequencies allow connections to
be established on all shortwave bands. During December, we are
likely to experience another increase in solar activity in the last
third of the month, preceded by several days of increased
geomagnetic activity.

The latest video report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX1SWW, can be found
on Youtube.

The Predicted Planetary A Index for December 6 to 12 is 12, 10, 8,
5, 5, 5, 8 with a mean of 7.5. Predicted Planetary K Index is 4, 3,
3, 2, 2, 2, and 3, with a mean of 2.7. 10.7 centimeter flux is 190,
190, 190, 190, 185, 180, and 180, with a mean of 186.4.
ÿ
For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[4] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.
ÿ


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/12/2025

Solar activity reached high levels this past week when Region 4299
produced an M1.1 (R1/Minor) flare on December 6. Shortly after, the
region produced an M8.1/2b (R3/Strong) flare, also on December 6.
Associated with the M8.1 flare was a 1,100 SFU Tenflare, a 1,143
km/s Type II sweep and a Type IV sweep. (A "sweep" is a solar radio
burst that sweeps through the RF spectrum as the energy moves
outward from the Sun.)

Some development was observed around the leader spot of Region 4299,
while slight decay was noted among the trailer spots. Regions 4296
and 4294 remained the largest of the visible disk but have only
produced C-class activity in the past 24 hours. Only minor changes
were observed among the other numbered active regions and activity
is now moderate.
ÿ
Coronal mass ejection (CME) activity was observed from both M-class
flares. A slow, Earth-directed CME was observed from the M1.1 and a
faster, full-halo, Earth-directed CME was observed from the M8.1
flare. According to Spaceweather.com[1], it touched off a G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm on December 10.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters reflected a disturbed near-Earth environment
throughout the reporting period. Solar wind speeds showed little
reaction to the magnetic transient, averaging 375 km/s throughout
the reporting period. The phi angle was oriented towards-the-Sun
(negative) for the majority of the reporting period, then slowly
rotated around to away-from-the-Sun (positive) 1.5 hours after the
arrival of the transient.
ÿ
The electron flux is expected to become elevated through December 14
as a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) originating from the
negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere becomes
geoeffective. The flux is likely to surpass the 1,000 pfu threshold
during the diurnal maxima.

As complex regions in the western hemisphere move beyond the limb,
chances for the proton flux to become elevated decrease. There is a
10% chance for an S1 (Minor) radiation storming event on December
12, with chances decreasing to 1% by December 14.

Spaceweather.com[2] for December 12 reports on the Geminids Meteor
Showers peaking this upcoming weekend.

A story on the Meteor Scatter QSO Party can be found on the ARRL
website at, http://arrl.org/news/operators-monitors-wanted-for-meteor-scatter-qso-party-dec ember-12-13[3] .

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, December 4, 2025, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"On December 1, an active sunspot group emerged on the southeastern
limb of the solar disk, as expected. During the last solar rotation,
it was designated AR4274. Astronomers renamed it now as AR4294,
while produced the first in a series of energetically significant
flares observed during the first third of December. In addition,
AR4296 began to grow right next to it, and together they began to
resemble the so-called Carrington region of 1859. However, the
growth of both regions slowed down, but moderately powerful
eruptions continued to occur in them, surprisingly contributed to by
the relatively small group AR4299 in the north of the solar disk.

"Another energetically significant solar flare on December 8 came as
a surprise. Given the speed of the ejected particles, the CME was
expected to hit Earth on December 9. However, they apparently
traveled to Earth along a longer path and arrived on December 10.
Therefore, they encountered a slow and expected stream of particles
that last hit Earth on November 12. The result of the encounter
between the slow and fast particle streams was a so-called reverse
shock at around 20:00 UT on December 10, which triggered a G2-class
geomagnetic storm. However, these storms are usually short-lived
and, apart from unusual, irregular (and interesting) developments,
they did not have any significant consequences.

"Solar activity remains high, and the state of the ionosphere
reflects this. However, the fact that the conditions for shortwave
propagation are different from previous cycles is another story.
Every eleven-year cycle is different."

The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found on
YouTube at, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsh1fLbrUjk[4] .

The Predicted Planetary A Index for December 13 to 19 is 12, 12, 8,
5, 8, 10, and 8, with a mean of 9.ÿ Predicted Planetary K Index is
4, 4, 3, 2, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of 3.1.ÿ 10.7-centimeter flux
is 140, 130, 130, 135, 135, 140, and 140, with a mean of 135.8.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] http://Spaceweather.com
[3] http://arrl.org/news/operators-monitors-wanted-for-meteor-scatter-qso-party-december-12-13
[4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsh1fLbrUjk
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/19/2025

Solar activity has been at low levels with only a few C1 flares from
Region 4307. Slight growth and consolidation were observed in that
region as it neared the southwestern limb. Slight decay and
separation were observed in Region 4311. The rest of the spotted
regions were either stable or in decay. CME analysis will be
conducted as imagery becomes available. Solar activity is expected
to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2,
minor-moderate) December 18 to 20.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters continued to be under the influence of a
negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar
wind speed was mostly in the 550 to 650 km/s range. HSS influences
are expected to gradually diminish December 19 - 20.
ÿ
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels over December
19 to 21. There is a chance for R1/R2 (Minor-Moderate) events
through December 21. The solar wind environment is expected to
remain mildly enhanced over December 19 to 21 as negative polarity
CH HSS influences diminish.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, December 18, 2025, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

The occurrence of an extensive coronal hole in the western half of
the solar disk is consistent with the increased speed of the solar
wind, as measured by geostationary satellites. The edges of another
relatively large coronal hole in the east are likely to be the
source of the next period of enhanced solar wind during the coming
week.ÿ However, overall solar activity is low, as reflected in the
low values of the critical frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer.

The decline in geomagnetic activity in mid-December did, however,
have a positive effect on shortwave propagation conditions, albeit
mainly at lower frequencies. This included the occasional formation
of ionospheric waveguides.

Although solar activity is likely to increase next week, the
activity of the Earth's magnetic field is also likely to increase.
Therefore, unstable conditions can be expected in the Earth's
ionosphere, with short intervals of improvement followed by longer
intervals of deterioration in shortwave propagation conditions.

The current Solar Cycle Progression from the NOAA/Space Weather
Prediction Center can be found at, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression[1] .

The Predicted Planetary A Index for December 20 to 26 is 10, 5, 20,
20, 25, 20, and 20, with a mean of 17.1. Predicted Planetary K Index
is 3, 2, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, with a mean of 4.2. 10.7-centimeter flux is
115, 115, 125, 135, 145, 155, 165, with a mean of 136.4.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[5] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[6]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.
ÿ


[1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
[2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://k9la.us/
[6] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/02/2026

The January 2, 2026, report from Spaceweather.com[1] has updated
details about the Coronal Mass Ejections predicted to hit the Earth
on January 3 and 4.

Solar wind parameters are expected to be disturbed through January
4, 2026, due to a combination of Coronal Hole High Speed Stream and
Coronal Mass Ejection activity. There is the potential for glancing
influences late into January 3 from CMEs that left the Sun on
December 28 to 30. Additional enhancements are possible again on
January 4 with the possible indirect impact of the CME that left the
Sun on January 2.

By early January 3 the arrival of the December 31 is expected to
cause unsettled to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming. Additional
geomagnetic storming is anticipated on January 4 with the possible
impact of the January 2 CME.

Solar activity is expected to be predominately low through January
24, with C-class flares expected throughout the outlook period.
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) range from a chance to likely
at times as active regions evolve and rotate on/off the disk.
X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) range from a slight chance to
a chance during periods of enhanced active region complexity.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, January 1, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"In mid-December 2025, we observed a relatively significant decline
in solar activity within the approximately 27-day fluctuation caused
by the rotation of the Sun. It seemed that the maximum of the
eleven-year cycle would end after a period of high activity in
2024-2025. However, a significant increase in solar activity in the
second half of December suggests the opposite-solar activity will
probably remain relatively high in 2026!

"Based on increased flare activity, accompanied by coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) in the last days of 2025, geomagnetic disturbances
can be predicted in the first days of 2026. Their probability should
increase since January 1 (G1 level) until January 3 (when G2 level
can be expected). Calm days should follow since January 5.

"In the current eleven-year cycle, we have become accustomed to the
fact that the parameters of the ionosphere differ from those
measured in previous cycles at the same level of solar activity. For
example, the critical frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer are
significantly lower. This will probably also apply to the rest of
the cycle. Even so, the forecast of a slower decline in solar
activity is favorable for the shortwave propagation."

Region 4330 was responsible for two eruptions seen in SUVI imagery.
The first was associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME), first
observed in coronagraph imagery December 30, 2025, and was closely
followed by a second CME from the northeast quadrant, potentially
from near Region 4324. None of their modeled trajectory indicated
direct impact near Earth. Further coronagraph images are necessary
to evaluate whether the second eruption from Region 4330 will result
in a visible CME. No other Earth-directed CME was observed during
the period.
ÿ
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class
flares through January 2, 2026, due to the current magnetic
complexity and development of the active regions on the visible
solar disk.
ÿ
Periods of active conditions are likely on January 9 and 10 and on
January 12 to 14 due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.ÿ

The latest solar report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found
on YouTube at:
https://youtu.be/jmeefUKgN6o?si=_cHekumd2JskrU_F[2] .

The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 3, 2026 to January 9 is
15, 12, 5, 5, 5, 5, and 15, with a mean of 8.9ÿ Predicted Planetary
K Index is 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, and 4, with a mean of 2.9.
10.7-centimeter flux is 160, 155, 150, 155, 140, 130, and 125, with a
mean of 145.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[6] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[7]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.
ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://youtu.be/jmeefUKgN6o?si=_cHekumd2JskrU_F
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http:
[7] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/09/2026

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels on January 13 and 14, and then from January 17 to 20.

Unsettled levels are likely on January 12, and then from January 21
and 22.ÿ All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the
anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent, coronal holes. The
remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet.

A tracking model from NOAA/SWPC shows a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
could pass close to Earth by January 11.ÿ Multiple faint coronal
mass ejections were observed off the SE limb originating from Region
4334. However, modeling appeared to show no Earth-directed
component.
ÿ
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance (45 percent) for
M-class flares (R1-R2, minor-moderate), and a slight chance (10
percent) for isolated X-class flares (R3-strong) until January 10.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters became mildly enhanced after January 7.
However, Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS) influence is
expected to persist through January 10.

Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue on January
10 and 11 as the coronal hole moves further into a geo-effective
position, along with the possible arrival of CMEs that left the Sun
on January 8, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions
late on January 10.
ÿ
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, January 8, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"According to the original forecast, solar activity was expected to
gradually decline until mid-January. However, an active region,
AR4336, emerged in the southeast of the solar disk, in a location
where nothing unusual had occurred during the previous solar
rotation. As a result, overall solar activity is already beginning
to increase.

"Other formations important for the forecast are coronal holes No.
12 and 13, whose proximity to active regions will cause an
intensification of the solar wind. Its effects will be felt in the
Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere since January 9, when the
shorter disturbance is expected. This will be followed by a brief
lull and a renewed increase in geomagnetic activity before
mid-January.

"The forecast for the coming days is very uncertain. If the
situation from the last solar rotation repeats itself, solar
activity could continue to increase since mid-January, while the
days of January 15-18 could be geomagnetically active or even
disturbed. However, it seems that a reliable forecast cannot be made
at this time."

The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 10 to 16 is 8, 5, 10,
15, 15, 5, and 5, with a mean of 9.ÿ Predicted Planetary K Index is
3, 2, 3, 5, 5, 2, and 2, with a mean of 3.1.ÿ 10.7-centimeter flux
is 135, 130, 135, 135, 140, 145, and 145, with a mean of 137.9.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[4] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

ÿ


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/16/2026

Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.6 flare on
January 14 from new region AR4341. Spot classification of this
region is complicated by limb proximity and foreshortening effects.
New Region AR4342 rotated around the NE limb and was also numbered.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed. Solar
activity is expected to be low with a 25-30% chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, minor-moderate) to January 17.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters were elevated under continued negative
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influences. Solar
wind speed ranged mostly between 450-570 km/s.
ÿ
Another enhancement in the solar wind is expected early on January
17 when a current, positive polarity, CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective. Solar wind speed is likely to exceed 700 km/s based on
recurrent data.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on January 21 to 27, and then on
January 30 and 31st due to the anticipated influence of multiple,
recurrent coronal holes. The remainder of the outlook period is
likely to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels on January 29, unsettled to active levels on January 19
to 23, and then on 27 and 28. All enhancements in geomagnetic
activity are due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent
Coronal Hole High Speed Streams.ÿ The remainder of the outlook
period is expected to mostly quiet.
ÿ
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, January 15, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Within the 27-day fluctuation, as expected, the solar radio noise
power flux curve on the wavelength of 10.7 cm passed through a
minimum of 111 s.f.u. on January 11. Whereupon began to rise slowly.
The rise will continue, mainly due to new activity around the
southeastern limb of the solar disk, where the currently largest
active region, AR4341, has emerged. Even before its emergence, it
made itself known with M-class solar flares accompanied by CMEs.

"Other significant formations on the Sun include three coronal
holes. The second largest is now located on the northwest part of
the solar disk. The solar wind blowing from its edges is likely to
cause a shorter increase in geomagnetic activity on January 17.
Significantly stronger disturbances can be expected about a week
later, when the large coronal hole will move from the southeast of
the solar disk to the central meridian. This will happen
simultaneously with AR4341, causing a significant increase in solar
flux-and also geomagnetic activity."

The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 17 to 23 is 5, 5, 18,
15, 12, 8, and 6, with a mean of 9.9.ÿ Predicted Planetary K Index
is 2, 2, 4, 4, 4, 3, and 2, with a mean of 3.ÿ 10.7-centimeter flux
is 106, 106, 110, 115, 125, 135, and 140, with a mean of 119.6.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[4] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

ÿ


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/23/2026

Solar activity reached moderate levels with two M-class flares
earlier this week.
ÿ
The first flares occurred on January 21 in regions 4345 and 4349.
Region 4345 continued to show development, as well as region 4342.
Region 4341 was a main contributor to the C-level activity of the
day, including a larger C-class flare on January 21. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery.
ÿ
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate (R1/R2, minor/moderate)
levels, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-strong) on
January 24, primarily due to the magnetic potential of Regions 4341,
4342 and 4345.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters reflected Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
influence transitioning into a high-speed stream paradigm, with the interplanetary magnetic field returned to largely enhanced
background levels. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from about
800 km/s to 575 km/s at the end of the day. Phi angle remained in
the positive solar sector (away from the Sun), indicating the
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) dominant influence over the
period. Solar wind parameters near Earth are expected to be
dominated by the CH HSS conditions in the next three days.
ÿ
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach (G1-Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels on January 29 and unsettled to active levels on January
27 and 28, then 30 and 31, and then from February 4 to 11.ÿ All
enhancements in activity are due to the anticipated influence of
multiple, recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Streams.ÿ The remainder
of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, January 22, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"A combination of favorable circumstances contributed to the
northern lights on the night of January 19-20 becoming one of the
main stories in the media in the following days. In particular, much
of Europe enjoyed very favorable weather conditions thanks to an
extensive high-pressure system, the center of which slowly moved
southward from Russia across Ukraine, the Black Sea, and Turkey to
the Middle East. In its western part, a dry, cold wind blew from the
south. As a result, the aurora borealis was observed as far south as
southern Europe, for example in southern France, northern Italy, and
Romania.

"Before the disturbance, a sunspot group AR4341, had been gradually
growing. Its magnetic configuration became increasingly complex,
while to the west and south of it lay the extensive coronal hole No.
15. Then, in a position near the center of the solar disk, very
favorable for the Earth to be hit by solar wind, a proton flare with
the highest concentration and energy of protons in the last 36 years
was observed. The beginning of the phenomenon was registered on
January 18 at 1727 UT, with a maximum at 1809 UT and an end at 1851
UT.

"A very fast particle ejection (CME) began on January 18 at 1748 UT,
lasted 5 hours, while was best observed around 1812 UT. The particle
flow velocity was extreme, ranging from 2900 up to 3500 km/s.
Therefore, the geomagnetic disturbance did not begin two to three
days after the flare, as is usual, but the very next day - January
19. The aurora borealis was visible for most of the night from
January 19 to 20, and even at mid-latitudes it had not only the
usual red color, but also, exceptionally, green.

"The G4 geomagnetic disturbance lasted 15 hours and was followed by
a G3 disturbance lasting 18 hours. The occurrence of numerous
inhomogeneities in the ionosphere caused large and variable
attenuation. On the other hand, the values of the critical
frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer during the daytime in
mid-latitudes on January 19 and 20 were above average. The decline,
typical for the end of the disruption, did not occur until January
21.

"Solar activity at the end of December indicated that the maximum of
the eleven-year cycle is not yet over and will extend from 2024-2025
into part of 2026. During the rest of January, solar activity will
decline only very slowly, with a more significant decline occurring
after the beginning of February, when another longer geomagnetic
disturbance can be expected."

The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 24 to 30 is 5, 5, 5, 10,
15, 25, and 12, with a mean of 11.ÿ Predicted Planetary K Index is
2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 4, with a mean of 3.14.ÿ 10.7 centimeter flux
is 180, 175, 170, 165, 160, 165, and 165, with a mean of 168.6.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[4] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

ÿ


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/30/2026

Solar activity continued at low levels this week. Low level C-class
flares were observed from Regions 4342 and 4353. The majority of the
regions were either stable or in decay. New Regions 4359, 4360, and
4361 emerged on the disk and were numbered. No Earth-directed
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed. The forecast calls for
solar activity to remain at low levels with a chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through January 31.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters reflected a solar sector boundary crossing
followed by the likely onset of high speed stream (HSS) conditions.
On January 27, phi angle switched into a negative sector. Solar wind
speed began to increase after January 28 to around 610 km/s.
Enhancements in the solar wind environment are expected through
January 31 under negative polarity Coronal Hole High Speed Streams
(CH HSS) influences.

The geomagnetic field is expected quiet to unsettled levels on
January 31, and quiet levels on February 1.

Solar activity is expected to be predominately low with a varying
chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through February
21.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on January 31, and then on February 1
to 3. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected to persist through
the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm
levels on February 13, with active periods likely on February 4 and
5 due to the influences of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet and quiet-to-unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the
remainder of the outlook period.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, January 29, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"The number of sunspot groups has ranged between eight and ten in
recent days, but these are mostly magnetically simple areas with low
eruptive activity. However, the solar wind is blowing faster and
faster from the Sun, resulting in increased geomagnetic activity,
especially since January 28. Although this was expected, the
combination of fast solar wind, while rapid and significant changes
in the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field has had
atypical consequences in the ionosphere. These include numerous
occurrences of ionospheric waveguides on January 28 and during the
night of January 29.

"In the coming days, solar and geomagnetic activity should continue
to decline. The next increase in geomagnetic activity can be
expected in the middle of the first week of February, but this time
without the major influence of high-speed solar wind. Therefore,
only a decrease in critical frequencies and an increase in
attenuation are expected in the ionosphere until February 6,
followed by a return to average values is expected."

The latest solar report by Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found on
YouTube at, https://youtu.be/JXKADnd1E8w?si=pTrl5bAwGvvajUuF[1] .

The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 31 to February 6 is 8,
5, 5, 5, 15, 12, and 10, with a mean of 8.6.ÿ Predicted Planetary K
Index is 3, 2, 2, 2, 4, 4, and 3, with a mean of 2.9.
10.7-centimeter flux is 120, 120, 130, 140, 140, 130, and 120, with
a mean of 128.6.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[5] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[6]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.
ÿ


[1] https://youtu.be/JXKADnd1E8w?si=pTrl5bAwGvvajUuF
[2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://k9la.us/
[6] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/06/2026

Solar activity was at high levels for most of the week, dominated by
Region 4366. The most notable event was an impulsive X4.2 flare from
that region on February 4. Throughout the period, Region 4366
continued to exhibit a slight reduction in area and a modest
simplification of its magnetic complexity. The remaining numbered
regions on the visible disk remained stable or in a state of slight
decay.
ÿ
Three eruptions were observed in coronagraph imagery during the
period. First was a coronal mass ejection (CME) off the southeastern
limb, first observed in C2 imagery on February 4, and was likely
associated with flaring near Regions 4370 and 4371. This event was
followed by post-eruptive arcades also on February 4 at the same
location, which further confirmed the source region despite flare
activity being partially obscured by Region 4366. Modeling indicates
no Earth-directed component.
ÿ
The second was a narrow eruption to the NNW, first seen in C2
imagery on February 4. While potentially associated with the
aforementioned X4.2 event, it dissipated quickly and its analysis is
low confidence. Lastly, there was another narrow eruption noted off
the NE, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. This event was
likely a sympathetic eruption triggered by the X4.2, starting
between Regions 4366 and 4367.
ÿ
There is a slight potential of minor glancing blows from these
eruptions early on February 8.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters initially reflected nominal background
conditions before showing a clear disturbance beginning February 3.
Solar wind speed remained in a slow-wind regime, gradually
increasing from about 290 km/s to a peak near 340 km/s.
ÿ
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, February 5, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

Solar activity has increased again, so the maximum of the 25th
eleven-year cycle continues. This time, active region No. 4366 is
primarily responsible for this. It suddenly emerged on January 30 in
the southeast of the solar disk in a simple Beta magnetic
configuration. The next day, it did not grow, but changed its
configuration to Beta-Gamma-Delta, allowing for larger solar flares.
Then, on February 1, it increased its area tenfold, while an
extremely strong proton flare was observed in it, peaking on
February 2 at 0002 UT.

Until February 4, it had further doubled in size, with the magnetic configuration remaining Beta-Gamma-Delta, while the production of
energetically significant flares continued. One to two X-class
flares and several M-class flares are recorded daily, while on
February 4, active region No. 4366 crossed the central meridian.

This further increased the likelihood of the Earth being hit by an
intensified solar wind and the occurrence of stronger geomagnetic
disturbances. Their onset was mostly predicted for February 5, with
the possibility of occurring one or two days earlier. This is what
happened, with the arrival of the CME recorded on February 4 at 1421
UT and a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic disturbance developing. It is
expected to continue until February 6 or possibly February 7. At the
same time, the production of energetically significant flares could
continue in active region No. 4366 until February 7. At the same
time, there will continue a period of slightly increased probability
of the Earth being hit by proton of solar origin. A decrease in
solar and geomagnetic activity is expected in the following days.

The Predicted Planetary A Index for February 7 to February 13 is 8,
8, 10, 8, 8, 5 and 20, with a mean of 9.5. Predicted Planetary K
Index is 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, and 5 with a mean of 3.1. 10.7-centimeter
flux is 125, 130, 135, 140, 135, 140, and 145, with a mean of 135.7.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[4] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.
ÿ


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/13/2026

Solar activity reached moderate levels early this week. The
strongest event was an M1.4 flare observed on February 11 in Region
4366. This region also produced nine C-class flares.
ÿ
Region 4373 produced a C1.8/Sf flare on February 11. This region
displayed some minor area growth. Regions 4369 and 4371 exhibited
some minor decay. The other spotted regions remained unchanged. New
Region 4375 was numbered. A small loop structure near S22W80 erupted
around February 10.
ÿ
Around the same time, a large filament (located near N15W25) lifted
off and disappeared from GONG H-alpha imagery. Between faint
features in disk imagery and a data gap in STEREO coronagraph
imagery, it is difficult to determine whether the filament is
superimposed over the earlier eruption or largely fell back down to
the Sun. Analysis of the coronagraph structure indicates there is no Earth-directed component. However, there is the potential for
interaction between the eruption and the co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) ahead of an anticipated high-speed stream, which may
cause the CIR to become compressed and arrive later than under
ambient conditions.
ÿ
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through February 14.
Probability for M-class (R1-R2) flares dropped to a slight chance on
February 14, with a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flares
on February 12 as Region 4366 continues to rotate behind the western
limb.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect waning influence of a
negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) with
discrete mild disturbances likely associated with embedded transient structures. Solar wind speeds remained generally elevated, slowly
decreasing from approximately 500 km/s to 400 km/s by the end of the
reporting period.
ÿ
On February 14, the wind environment is expected to become more
enhanced late in the day due to CIR effects from a large positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) coupled with
possible weak CME effects from the February 11 eruption.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, February 12, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"The last largest sunspot group, also known as NOAA active region
4366, which suddenly appeared in the southeast of the solar disk on
January 30, has now disappeared. Until then, it was the source of a
long series of energetically significant flares. (This group could
reappear on the eastern limb of solar disk around February 23.)
Overall solar activity declined, slowly at first, and more
significantly after the setting of AR 4366.

"The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with the
exception of a disturbance on February 5 and calm days on February
8-9. Due to the absence of major and longer geomagnetic disturbances
and despite the decline in solar radiation, ionospheric propagation
conditions for short waves were mostly slightly above average.

"A slight increase in solar activity can be expected from
mid-February, meanwhile it appears that geomagnetic activity could
also increase slightly at around the same time. Until then,
ionospheric propagation conditions for short waves are likely to
remain slightly above average.

"It is not yet possible to predict whether the minor disturbances
from January 16 to 17 and, in particular, the more significant
disturbances around January 20 will recur (in the latter case, this
would be around February 16, when geomagnetic activity is likely to
increase, but probably only to an 'active' level)."

The latest solar report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found
on YouTube at, https://youtu.be/BECqZ6z1yi0?si=YXv2-V23040HzMQA[1] .

Predicted Planetary A Index for February 14 to 20 is 5, 5, 15, 15,
15, 15, and 15, with a mean of 12.1.ÿ Predicated Planetary K Index
is 2, 2, 4, 4, 4, 4, and 4, with a mean of 3.4.ÿ 10.7-centimeter
flux is 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 175, and 170, with a mean of 163.6.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[5] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[6]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.
NNNN
/EX

ÿ


[1] https://youtu.be/BECqZ6z1yi0?si=YXv2-V23040HzMQA
[2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://k9la.us/
[6] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/20/2026

Solar activity returned to low levels this past week. The strongest
event of the period was a C1.8 flare on February 17 from region
4374. This region was also responsible for a C1.4 flare on February
18. The only other flare of note was a C1.1 flare on February 17
from an unnumbered plage region near S05E85. (A plage region is a
bright, intensely hot region in the Sun's chromosphere, typically
found in active areas surrounding sunspots.)

Region 4374 exhibited minor decay through the dissipation of its
trailing spots. Regions 4375 and 4377 were largely unchanged in area
and complexity.
ÿ
A large filament eruption beyond the southwest limb was seen in SDO
and SUVI imagery starting approximately February 18. It was
associated with a Type II radio sweep that began on February 18 with
an estimated shock velocity of 310 km/s. The eruption was first
visible in coronagraph imagery on February 18, but initial analysis
indicates no Earth-directed component. Solar activity is forecast to
be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/minor-moderate) flares through February 20.
ÿ
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the waning influence of a
positive polarity Coronal Hole High-Speed Stream (CH HSS). Solar
wind speed followed a general declining trend, decreasing from an
initial peak near 600 km/s to approximately 500 km/s by the end of
the reporting period. The solar wind environment is expected to
remain enhanced through February 20 due to continued but weakening
CH HSS influences.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, February 19, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Overall solar activity was relatively high in the first week of
February, with the number of sunspot groups on the solar disk
ranging from seven to nine. Over the next ten days, we observed an
almost uninterrupted decline, at the end of which there were only
three sunspot groups remaining on the disk.

"Significant eruptions could only occur in one of them: AR 4374.
Before it set behind the western limb of the solar disk, one of the
few more powerful eruptions was observed in it. It happened on
February 16, with the peak at 0436 UT, accompanied by a CME,
partially heading towards Earth. The arrival was expected on
February 19. Although it did so at 1501 UT, Earth only encountered
the edge of the particle cloud - and in fact, almost nothing
happened.

"Geomagnetic activity was elevated on February 15-16. The phenomenon
began with a positive phase of disturbance in the evening hours,
during which there was a noticeable improvement in shortwave
propagation conditions. A significant deterioration naturally
followed on February 16, partially also on February 17.

"Any geomagnetic disturbance at the beginning of the predicted
period should be short (on 19th), while another disturbance can be
expected around February 24. Given that solar activity will be on
the rise again at that time, a positive phase of the disturbance can
be expected."

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on February 24 and 25, and on March 5 to 7 due to recurrent
negative polarity CH HSS effects. Active conditions are likely on
March 12 following a solar sector boundary crossing, then again on
March 14 with the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.ÿ Barring the
potential for CME activity, mostly quiet to unsettled levels are
expected until February 23, and then February 26 to March 4.

The Predicted Planetary A Index for February 21 to 27 is 5, 5, 8,
20, 20, 8, and 5, with a mean of 10.1.ÿ The Predicted Planetary K
Index is 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, 3, and 2, with a mean of 3.1.
10.7-centimeter flux is 105, 120, 130, 135, 130, 130, and 140, with
a mean of 127.1.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[4] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

ÿ


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS